Look At All the Market Data and Not Just Monthly Pricing, Kontos Says

Tom Kon­tos
Exec­u­tive Vice Pres­i­dent & Chief Econ­o­mist
ADESA Ana­lyt­i­cal Ser­vices

Whole­sale prices were up month-over-month and year-over-year. While it was strong on both the sea­son­al and sec­u­lar mar­ket lev­els, sup­ply growth is bring­ing down pres­sure on prices. That’s made more clear by low­er con­ver­sion rates and price weak­ness for par­tic­u­lar age, sale type, and mod­el class seg­ments. One prob­lem with bas­ing con­clu­sions on over­all prices is that the data set omits vehi­cles that no-sold and encour­ages a false sense of con­fi­dence. Off-rental pro­gram vehi­cles fall in this class; vehi­cles that had been cur­tailed from late 2014 were nosale’d in March with hopes of find­ing bet­ter prices lat­er.

Here’s the lat­est edi­tion of Kon­tos Kom­men­tary

Sale Prices Are Biased this Year by “Rich­er Mix” of Insti­tu­tion­al Vehi­cles:
Late-mod­el off-rental pro­gram vehi­cle have played part in ele­vat­ing aver­age prices.

Whole­sale Prices Aver­aged $10,646 in March – up 4.7% Over Feb­ru­ary:
Truck Class­es per­formed much stronger than the car and crossover class­es.

Deal­er Con­signors Only Insti­tu­tion­al Seg­ment See­ing Lift from Year Ago:
CPO sales very strong – up 12.4% month-over-month and 7.4% year-over-year.

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