How Growing Used Supply Is Likely to Affect Market this Year

Jonathan Banks
Exec­u­tive Auto­mo­tive Ana­lyst
NADA Used Car Guide

New vehi­cle sales have returned to pre-reces­sion lev­els, used vehi­cle sup­ply ― espe­cial­ly off-lease sup­ply ― is quick­ly recov­er­ing. Per­son­al lease vol­ume improved by about 9% to 3.14 mil­lion units in 2014 and com­mer­cial leas­es added anoth­er 500,000-plus units. That makes for the high­est fig­ure since 1999’s record high of 3.3 mil­lion units. The num­ber of per­son­al leas­es set in 2015 should sur­pass this fig­ure by land­ing some­where in 3.3 to 3.4 mil­lion range.

See the NADA Per­spec­tive report on used vehi­cle sup­ply

See­ing Rapid Rise in Leas­ing Com­bined with Program’s Short­er Hold­ing Cycle:
Vol­ume growth for younger mod­els will rise more dra­mat­i­cal­ly than it will for old­er vehi­cles.

Off-Lease Sup­ply Should Rise 20% to 2.35M Units this Year:
Retail sup­ply should increase by more mod­est 7%, and off-rental sup­ply up by only 1%.

Prices of Used Vehi­cles Up to 8 Years Old Should Drop 2% to 2.5% from 2014:
Sub­com­pact, com­pact, and mid-size cars should suf­fer the most this year in prices.



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