Special Report: Is There Room for Auto Industry to Grow or is it Overextended?

Art Spinel­la
CNW Research

Are US auto sales head­ing for overex­ten­sion and a crash? Prob­a­bly not, accord­ing to CNW Research. Cal­en­dar year 2000 saw 17.4M units sold, the largest ever, with 6.2% of the pop­u­la­tion mak­ing a new vehi­cle acqui­si­tion. The record for high­est pop­u­la­tion mak­ing pur­chas­es was 7.5% in 1986. Cal­en­dar year 2014 saw 16.5M sold to 5.35% of the pop­u­la­tion. That’s not like­ly to shoot up next year – prob­a­bly more like 5.39% buy­ing new vehi­cles with 2015 fin­ish­ing at 17.12M sold.

Here’s the Spe­cial Fore­cast Issue for 2015

Incen­tive Spend­ing Should Con­tin­ue to Increase to Hit that 17.2M Sales Mark:
Auto indus­try did lose more than $10B in ear­ly 2000s due to inflat­ed resid­ual val­ues.

CNW Fore­casts Trans­ac­tion Prices Will Sink to 81% of MSRP from Cur­rent 84%:
That should come from high­er incen­tives and big­ger deal­er trade-in val­ues.

Con­sumers Paid About $2,800 More for CPO than Com­pa­ra­ble Non-CPO Used Cars Last Year:
Pro­ject­ing that will increase in 2015 with aver­age pre­mi­um in the $3,100 range.



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