Are US auto sales heading for overextension and a crash? Probably not, according to CNW Research. Calendar year 2000 saw 17.4M units sold, the largest ever, with 6.2% of the population making a new vehicle acquisition. The record for highest population making purchases was 7.5% in 1986. Calendar year 2014 saw 16.5M sold to 5.35% of the population. That’s not likely to shoot up next year – probably more like 5.39% buying new vehicles with 2015 finishing at 17.12M sold.
Incentive Spending Should Continue to Increase to Hit that 17.2M Sales Mark:
Auto industry did lose more than $10B in early 2000s due to inflated residual values.
CNW Forecasts Transaction Prices Will Sink to 81% of MSRP from Current 84%:
That should come from higher incentives and bigger dealer trade-in values.
Consumers Paid About $2,800 More for CPO than Comparable Non-CPO Used Cars Last Year:
Projecting that will increase in 2015 with average premium in the $3,100 range.