Seasonal Patterns

Yes, Off-Lease is Coming — but Don’t Forget About Seasonal Patterns

Jonathan Banks
Exec­u­tive Auto­mo­tive Ana­lyst
NADA Used Car Guide

The April used car mar­ket saw con­di­tions return­ing to nor­mal for this time of year – prices were down 1.1% from March for one-to-eight year old vehi­cles, essen­tial­ly equal to the 1% decline in April for the past two years. While off-lease vehi­cles will play a role, mar­ket con­di­tions are in line for now with what tends to hap­pen at this time of year. March had seen a pro­nounced 3.7% gain, but that fol­low extreme weath­er impact in Jan­u­ary and Feb­ru­ary. April fin­ished at 125.8 on the NADA sea­son­al­ly adjust­ed used vehi­cle price index, which tied with March as the high­est fig­ure reached.

Here’s the lat­est NADA Used Car Guide

Prices for All Com­pact Cars and Util­i­ties and Mid-size Cars Were Down in April:
Worth not­ing that depre­ci­a­tion aver­aged 1-per­cent­age point less than year ago.

Large Pick­ups Saw Months-Long Trend End, Falling Near­ly 1.3% in April:
3rd largest decline in seg­ment in past two years, behind 1.6% in Sep­tem­ber 2013 and 2.4% in Octo­ber 2013.

Prices for Lux­u­ry Util­i­ties Fell By 0.6% and Lux­u­ry Car Prices Fell by 1%:
While large SUV prices dipped by just 0.4%, the least of any seg­ment.

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