Itâ€™s been an hisÂtoric time for anyÂone workÂing in fleet vehiÂcle remarÂketÂing â€“ prices have been draÂmatÂiÂcalÂly high and marÂket conÂdiÂtions have been changÂing with new digÂiÂtal techÂnolÂoÂgy and upstream chanÂnels. So what does 2013 look like for used vehiÂcle valÂues? AutoÂmoÂtive News spoke with used car marÂket expert Ricky BegÂgs, manÂagÂing ediÂtor of Black Book, at the NationÂal AutoÂmoÂbile DealÂers AssoÂciÂaÂtion conÂvenÂtion, and here are a few of the points he made:
â€˘ Prices are likeÂly to be under the levÂels they reached in 2011 and 2012. The main reaÂson for that goes to supÂply and demand. The periÂod of underÂsupÂply has been changÂing and movÂing toward overÂsupÂply and softÂenÂing of the marÂket. If you look at new vehiÂcle sales volÂumes in recent years, it points the way to where the marketâ€™s going â€“ it jumped from 12.7 milÂlion units sold in 2011 to 14.5 milÂlion in 2012; this year could reach 15.3 milÂlion units sold.
â€˘ DealÂers have been comÂplainÂing about used vehiÂcle prices being too high, but they were still willÂing to bid at aucÂtion. They are still high on cerÂtain modÂel ages â€“ right now the averÂage used 2007 to 2011 modÂel cars is about $800 highÂer than comÂpaÂraÂbly-aged modÂels were a year ago. BegÂgs expects that in 2014, the total volÂume will creÂate enough used invenÂtoÂry to ease the supÂply and demand sitÂuÂaÂtion.
â€˘ Trucks should do well in residÂual valÂues because demand is increasÂing. That will be boostÂed by an improvÂing econÂoÂmy and more demand for trucks in the serÂvice econÂoÂmy and conÂstrucÂtion.
â€˘ Entry levÂel and subÂcomÂpact cars may be uncerÂtain â€“ thereâ€™s a lot more modÂels on the marÂket than in the past, and conÂsumers may not be ready until cars at that size until gasoÂline reachÂes $5 a galÂlon or highÂer.