Traditional Seasonal Patterns Expected in Next Few Months by KBB

Alec Gutierrez, Kelley Blue Book

Alec Gutier­rez
Senior Mar­ket Ana­lyst of Auto­mo­tive Insights
Kel­ley Blue Book

Used-car val­ues declined 1% in Sep­tem­ber, mildest decline in more than 3 months; Val­ues should con­tin­ue to drop at auc­tion through year-end in tra­di­tion­al sea­son­al pat­terns; Expect a bump in sup­ply ear­ly in 2013 when jump in off-lease vol­ume returns to mar­ket.

Click here to read the entire Blue Book Mar­ket Report for Octo­ber

Addi­tion­al Off-Lease Vol­ume of 300K-500K Like­ly Will Not Ben­e­fit Entire Mar­ket:
Most of these vehi­cles will end up being remar­ket­ed via upstream chan­nels avail­able only to fran­chised deal­ers of that par­tic­u­lar brand.

Val­ues of Sub­com­pact, Com­pact & Hybrid Cars Didn’t Increase as in Pre­vi­ous Fuel Spikes:
These seg­ments led mar­ket depre­ci­a­tion dur­ing fuel price spike from July to Sep­tem­ber.

As Fuel Prices Con­tin­ue to Ease, Expect Val­ues of Fuel-Effi­cient Vehi­cles to Resume Mild Depre­ci­a­tion at Auc­tion:
Through rest of year, should decline 1% to 2% before sta­bi­liz­ing.

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