Based on the pent-up demand for new cars following the recession, Toyota North America CEO Jim Lentz sees the volume of new car sales falling off.
Find out more about what Jim Lentz forecasts for the near future in auto sales.
The boom in sales of new cars in the U.S. has been fueled by consumers replacing vehicles they kept through the recession.
But a top auto industry executive says that the pent-up demand likely will be satisfied by late next year.
Jim Lentz, Toyota’s North American CEO, said that demand for new cars from owners of older models could dry up sometime late in 2014. If the economy isn’t creating jobs at a faster pace when that happens, the boom could screech to a halt.
“The market then has to work off a much better economy, an improving economy,” Lentz said. “If we don’t have that, I think the market may flatten out.”
New car and truck sales hit a three-decade low of 10.4 million in 2009 as the financial crisis dried up money for car loans and U.S.-based auto companies nearly went out of business. Consumers, many who feared they could lose their jobs, refused to buy new cars and instead kept their old ones on the road.
Sales, though, gradually rebounded and now are running at an annual rate of around 15.6 million, just below pre-recession levels.
Lentz, speaking in New York said the average car and truck in the U.S. is now more than 11 years old. At the same time, the supply of coveted used cars that are one-to-five years old is down to levels not seen since the 1980s. Used car prices have jumped, making their monthly payments as high as those for new cars, Lentz said. That’s brought more buyers into new-car showrooms, he said.
But as people replace their cars at a faster rate, the used-car supply increases. Eventually, prices will drop and lure buyers out of the new-car market, he said.
“So in time, as that one- to five-year base builds its way back up, I think we’re going to reach that equilibrium, probably sometime near the end of 2014,” he said.
Read more as JessTrueCar.com’s Jesse Toprak disagrees.