ExxonMobil Study Says that Diesel Will Outsell Gasoline Globally by 2020


Exxon­Mo­bil has released a fore­cast of energy trends, and says that diesel will soon out­sell gaso­line as the world’s lead­ing trans­porta­tion fuel. Diesel will sur­pass gaso­line as early as 2020 and will con­tinue to gain share for at least another 20 years after that. ExxonMobil’s report, “Out­look for Energy: A View to 2040,” fore­casts that for the more than 25 years cov­ered by the report, diesel demand is expected to account for 70% of the growth in all trans­porta­tion fuels.

Here are some key points from the Exxon­Mo­bil study:

1. The num­ber of diesel mod­els avail­able in US show­rooms is soon expected to dou­ble, accord­ing to one trade group. While some Amer­i­cans are still skep­ti­cal about the energy-dense fuel, there is a sig­nif­i­cant increase in demand.
2. Sales of vehi­cles in the com­mer­cial vehi­cle sec­tor will play the largest role in diesel sales increas­ing over gaso­line.
3. Diesel has seen some­thing of an energy renais­sance in recent years, dri­ven largely by demand in Europe, where diesel-powered vehi­cles account for about half of all sales. There are signs that sales of diesel-engine vehi­cles in China and the US are increas­ing.
4. Gasoline-engine vehi­cle sales will flat­ten out rel­a­tively and some of this will come from fore­casted growth in “elec­tri­fied” vehi­cles – hybrids, electrics, and plug-in hybrids through 2040.
5. Audi will add four new diesel mod­els for 2014, GM will soon launch the Chevro­let Cruze diesel ver­sion, Chrysler will add a Jeep Grand Chero­kee diesel, and Mazda will offer a diesel-powered Mazda6.
6. Much of the growth in diesel demand will come from com­mer­cial fleets. Heavy-duty vehi­cle sales is expected to grow sub­stan­tially in emerg­ing mar­kets lie China, Brazil, and India.
7. Growth in fuel-efficient gaso­line vehi­cles under fed­eral fuel econ­omy man­dates will also off­set sales of gaso­line com­pared to diesel.